Roy Charles Amara (7 April 1925 – 31 December 2007) was an American researcher, scientist, futurist and president of the Institute for the Future best known for coining Amara's law on the effect of technology. He held a BS in Management, an MS in the Arts and Sciences, and a PhD in Systems Engineering, and also worked at the Stanford Research Institute.

Amara's law

His adage, coined in 1978, about forecasting the effects of technology has become known as Amara's law and states:

We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.

The law has been used in explaining nanotechnology.

The reasoning behind this quote is because of the intense reaction to the development of something new and innovative; but when that technology doesn't immediately affect our day to day lives, or there isn't a major impact in the world it is quickly forgotten about.

Selected bibliography

Books

Reports

• Published in Conference proceedings 1978 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC 1978). Pdf.

References