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Wikipedia / 2004 United States presidential election

Presidential elections were held in the United States on November 2, 2004. Incumbent Republican president George W. Bush and his running mate, incumbent vice president Dick Cheney, were re-elected to a second term; they narrowly defeated the Democratic ticket of Massachusetts junior senator John Kerry and North Carolina senior senator John Edwards.

Bush and Cheney were re-nominated by their party with no difficulty. Meanwhile, the Democrats engaged in a competitive primary. Kerry emerged as the early front-runner but was faced with serious opposition by former Vermont governor Howard Dean, who briefly surged ahead of Kerry in the polls. Kerry won the first set of primaries in January and re-emerged as the front-runner, and Dean dropped out in February. Kerry clinched his party's nomination in March after a series of primary victories over runner-up Edwards, whom he ultimately selected to be his running mate.

The September 11 attacks in 2001 decisively reshaped Bush's foreign policy goals and garnered him near-universal support early in his term. However, by 2004 his management of the war on terror attracted serious debate, particularly over his handling of the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Bush presented himself as a decisive leader and attacked Kerry as a "flip-flopper"; Kerry had voted to authorize the invasion, but criticized Bush's conduct of the Iraq War. Domestic issues were debated as well, including the economy and jobs, health care, abortion, same-sex marriage, and embryonic stem cell research.

Bush won by a narrow margin of 35 electoral votes and took 50.7% of the popular vote. Bush swept the South and the Mountain states and took the crucial swing states of Ohio, Iowa, and New Mexico, the last two flipping Republican. Although Kerry flipped New Hampshire, Bush won both more electoral votes and states than in 2000. Ohio was the tipping-point state, and was considered to be the state that allowed Bush to win reelection. Some aspects of the election process were subject to controversy, although not to the degree seen in the 2000 presidential election. Bush won Florida by a 5% margin, a significant improvement over his razor-thin victory margin in the state four years earlier that had led to a legal challenge in Bush v. Gore. As of 2024, this marked the last election where the Republican nominee won Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia. It was also the last election where the Republican nominee won Nevada until 2024; and Florida, Iowa, and Ohio until 2016.

At the time, Bush received the most popular votes in history, a record that would be broken in 2008. Bush's win was the only Republican popular vote victory during the eight elections from 1992 to 2020. Bush is the only incumbent Republican president to have won a second term since Ronald Reagan in 1984, and the only Republican presidential candidate to have won a majority of the popular vote since his father in 1988.

Background

George W. Bush won the presidency in 2000 after the U.S. Supreme Court's decision in Bush v. Gore remanded the case to the Florida Supreme Court, which declared there was not sufficient time to hold a recount without violating the U.S. Constitution. Just eight months into Bush's presidency, the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, suddenly transformed him into a wartime president. His approval ratings surged to near 90%. Within a month, the forces of a coalition led by the United States entered Afghanistan, which had been sheltering Osama bin Laden, suspected mastermind of the September 11 attacks. The Taliban had been removed by December, although a long reconstruction would follow.

The Bush administration then turned its attention to Iraq and argued the need to remove Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq had become urgent. Among the stated reasons were that Saddam's regime had tried to acquire nuclear material and had not properly accounted for biological and chemical material it was known to have previously possessed. Both the possession of these weapons of mass destruction (WMD), and the failure to account for them, would violate the UN sanctions. The assertion about WMD was hotly advanced by the Bush administration from the beginning, but other major powers including China, France, Germany, and Russia remained unconvinced that Iraq was a threat and refused to allow passage of a UN Security Council resolution to authorize the use of force. Iraq permitted UN weapon inspectors in November 2002, who were continuing their work to assess the WMD claim when the Bush administration decided to proceed with war without UN authorization and told the inspectors to leave the country. The United States invaded Iraq on March 20, 2003, along with a "coalition of the willing" that consisted of additional troops from the United Kingdom, and to a lesser extent, from Australia and Poland. Within about three weeks, the invasion caused the collapse of both the Iraqi government and its armed forces; however, the U.S. and allied forces failed to find any weapon of mass destruction in Iraq. Nevertheless, on May 1, Bush landed on the aircraft carrier , in a Lockheed S-3 Viking, where he gave a speech announcing the end of "major combat operations" in the Iraq War.

Both candidates were not only graduates of Yale University, but both were also members of the exclusive Skull and Bones society. It is the only time two "Bonesmen" have faced each other for the presidency.

Nominations

Republican Party

<big>2004 Republican Party ticket</big>

whiteGeorge W. Bush

whiteDick Cheney

for President

for Vice President

43rdPresident of the United States(2001–2009)

46thVice President of the United States(2001–2009)

Campaign

Bush was able to ward off any serious challenge to the Republican nomination. Senator Lincoln Chafee from Rhode Island considered challenging Bush on an anti-war platform in New Hampshire but decided not to run after the capture of Saddam Hussein in December 2003. On March 10, 2004, Bush officially attained the number of delegates needed to be nominated at the 2004 Republican National Convention in New York City. He accepted the nomination on September 2, 2004, and retained Vice President Dick Cheney as his running mate. During the convention and throughout the campaign, Bush focused on two themes: defending America against terrorism and building an ownership society. The ownership society included allowing people to invest some of their Social Security in the stock market, increasing home and stock ownership, and encouraging more people to buy their own health insurance.

Democratic Party

<big>2004 Democratic Party ticket</big>

whiteJohn Kerry

whiteJohn Edwards

for President

for Vice President

U.S. Senatorfrom Massachusetts(1985–2013)

U.S. Senatorfrom North Carolina(1999–2005)

Campaign

Withdrawn candidates

Candidates in this section are sorted by popular vote from the primaries

John Edwards

Howard Dean

Dennis Kucinich

Wesley Clark

Al Sharpton

Joe Lieberman

Carol MoseleyBraun

Dick Gephardt

U.S. Senator fromNorth Carolina(1999–2005)

79thGovernor of Vermont(1991–2003)

U.S. Representative from Ohio(1997–2013)

Supreme AlliedCommander Europe(1997–2000)

Minister and Activist

U.S. Senatorfrom Connecticut(1989–2013)

U.S. Senatorfrom Illinois(1993–1999)

House Minority Leader(1995–2003)

Campaign

Campaign

Campaign

Campaign

Campaign

Campaign

Campaign

Campaign

W: March 23,162,337 votes

W: Feb 18903,460 votes

W: July 22620,242 votes

W: Feb 11547,369 votes

W: March 15380,865 votes

W: Feb 3280,940 votes

W: Jan 1598,469 votes

W: Jan 2063,902 votes

Democratic primaries

The 2004 Democratic Party presidential primaries took place from January 14 to June 8, 2004, to select the Democratic Party's nominee for president. Before the primaries, Vermont governor Howard Dean was a favorite to win the nomination; however, Massachusetts senator John Kerry won victories in two early races: the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. These wins strengthened Kerry's previously weak campaign. By March 11, Kerry had received enough delegates to win the nomination. Other major candidates included North Carolina senator John Edwards and retired U.S. Army general Wesley Clark. Kerry asked Republican senator John McCain to be his running mate but McCain turned down his offer. On July 6, Kerry selected Edwards as his running mate, shortly before the 2004 Democratic National Convention was held later that month in Boston.

Democratic National Convention

Heading into the convention, the Kerry–Edwards ticket unveiled its new slogan: a promise to make America "stronger at home and more respected in the world". Kerry made his Vietnam War experience the convention's prominent theme. The keynote address at the convention was delivered by Illinois state senator and U.S. Senate candidate and future president Barack Obama; the speech was well received, and it elevated Obama's status within the Democratic Party.

Other nominations

There were four other presidential tickets on the ballot in a number of states totaling enough electoral votes to have a theoretical possibility of winning a majority in the Electoral College. They were:

Issues unique to the election

Electronic voting machines

Ahead of the 2004 election, some states implemented electronic voting systems. Critics raised several issues about voting machines, particularly those made by Diebold Election Systems. Cybersecurity professionals found security vulnerabilities in Diebold machines. Voting machines made by several companies were also criticized for their lack of a paper trail, which would have made results easier to verify. Democrats also criticized various executives at Diebold, Inc. (the parent company of Diebold Election Systems) for their support of Bush's campaign, stating that it constituted a conflict of interest. Following these issues, California banned the use of Diebold's AccuVote TSX voting machines for elections in 2004.

Campaign law changes

The 2004 election was the first to be affected by the campaign finance reformss mandated by the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002. The act created restrictions on fundraising by political parties and candidates. A large number of independent 527 groups were created to bypass these restrictions. Named for a section of the Internal Revenue Code, these groups were able to raise large amounts of money for various political causes as long as they did not coordinate their activities with political campaigns. Examples of 527s include Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, MoveOn.org, the Media Fund, and America Coming Together. These groups were active throughout the campaign season, spending a record $556 million for all elections in 2004.

The Stand by Your Ad provision of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act required political advertisements on television to include a verbal disclaimer identifying the organization or campaign responsible for the advertisement. This provision was intended to force campaigns to take responsibility for negative advertisements. Campaign strategists criticized this requirement, stating that it would waste time and cause voters to be confused.

General election campaign

Campaign issues

Bush focused his campaign on national security, presenting himself as a decisive leader and contrasted Kerry as a "flip-flopper." This strategy was designed to convey to American voters the idea that Bush could be trusted to be tough on terrorism while Kerry would be "uncertain in the face of danger." In the final months before the election, Kerry's campaign focused on domestic issues such as the economy and health care. Kerry's campaign managers believed that Kerry had an advantage on domestic issues. Bush's campaign also focused on increasing voter turnout among conservatives. According to one exit poll, people who voted for Bush cited the issues of terrorism and traditional values as the most important factors in their decision. Kerry supporters cited the war in Iraq, the economy and jobs, and health care.

Economy

Tax cuts were passed in 2001 and 2003 under the Bush administration with Bush's support. Kerry voted against these tax cuts. During the 2004 campaign, Bush praised these tax cuts, stating that they helped to grow the economy. On the other hand, Kerry attacked Bush for failing to create jobs under his presidency. Kerry stated that he wanted to reduce the United States budget deficit by capping government spending while ending various tax breaks for businesses. Kerry also supported tax credits for businesses that hire additional workers. Bush attacked Kerry for his economic proposals, stating that they would cause Americans to pay higher taxes. Bush also attacked Kerry for previously supporting tax raises, such as a proposed increase on the federal gas tax.

Foreign policy

Bush defended the Iraq War, arguing that it was necessary to stop terrorism. He also said that the United States had made progress stopping terrorism in other nations. Bush attacked Kerry for opposing the Iraq War after voting to authorize it in 2002, characterizing the shift as one of many flip-flops by Kerry. Kerry argued that Bush had misled the American public in pursuing the Iraq War, noting that no illegal weapons had been found in Iraq. He said that the Iraq War was a mistake and a diversion from terrorism in other nations such as Afghanistan. After the election, exit polls found that foreign policy concerns were the most important issues for voters.

Health care

Health savings accounts (HSAs) were introduced in 2004 as part of the Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act, signed by Bush in December 2003. As part of his 2004 campaign, Bush supported the expansion of HSAs. He proposed tax cuts to help Americans purchase their own health insurance. He also proposed a plan that would allow small businesses to purchase health insurance in large groups. Kerry's health care proposals included government subsidies for businesses that provide health insurance and the expansion of government-run health care programs. Health policy experts stated that Bush's proposals would have a more limited impact than Kerry's proposals. Kerry also attacked Bush for his policy on stem cell research. In 2001, the Bush administration restricted embryonic stem cell research to existing stem cell lines. Kerry stated that this restriction was a barrier to conducting important research.

Same-sex marriage

In July 2004, Bush announced his support for a Constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage, shortly before the Senate voted on the amendment. Although Kerry stated that he opposed same-sex marriage, he also opposed the amendment, saying that the legality of same-sex marriage should be decided by individual states. The Senate vote failed on July 14.

Controversies

Bush military service controversy

During the campaign, Bush was accused of failing to fulfill his required service in the Texas Air National Guard. A scandal occurred at CBS News after they aired a segment on 60 Minutes Wednesday, introducing what became known as the Killian documents. These documents were allegedly written by Jerry B. Killian, Bush's squadron commander, and they contained various allegations about Bush's service. Serious doubts about the documents' authenticity quickly emerged, leading CBS to appoint a review panel that eventually resulted in the firing of the news producer and other significant staffing changes. The Killian documents were eventually concluded to be forgeries.

Kerry military service controversy

Kerry was accused by the Swift Vets and POWs for Truth of distorting his military service in Vietnam. The group challenged the legitimacy of each of the combat medals awarded to Kerry by the U.S. Navy, and the disposition of his discharge. The organization spent $22.4 million in advertisements against Kerry. After the election, political analysts described their advertising campaign as effective. The term swiftboating was used during the campaign to describe the organization's negative advertising, which Democrats saw as unfair. It was also used after the campaign to generally describe a harsh attack by a political opponent that is dishonest, personal and unfair.

Presidential debates

Three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate were organized by the Commission on Presidential Debates, and held in the autumn of 2004.

No.

Date

Host

City

Moderators

Participants

Viewship

(Millions)

P1

Thursday, September 30, 2004

University of Miami

Coral Gables, Florida

Jim Lehrer

President George W. BushSenator John Kerry

62.4

VP

Tuesday, October 5, 2004

Case Western Reserve University

Cleveland, Ohio

Gwen Ifill

Vice President Dick CheneySenator John Edwards

43.5

P2

Friday, October 8, 2004

Washington University in St. Louis

St. Louis, Missouri

Charles Gibson

President George W. BushSenator John Kerry

46.7

P3

Wednesday, October 13, 2004

Arizona State University

Tempe, Arizona

Bob Schieffer

President George W. BushSenator John Kerry

51.1

Debates among candidates for the 2004 U.S. presidential election

  • The first debate was held on September 30, slated to focus on foreign policy. A consensus formed among mainstream pollsters and pundits that Kerry won the debate decisively, strengthening what had come to be seen as a weak and troubled campaign.

  • On October 5, the vice presidential debate between Cheney and Edwards. An initial poll by ABC indicated a victory for Cheney, while polls by CNN and MSNBC gave it to Edwards.

  • The second presidential debate was conducted in a town meeting format, less formal than the first presidential debate. This debate saw Bush and Kerry taking questions on a variety of subjects from a local audience.

  • Bush and Kerry met for the third and final debate on October 13. 51 million viewers watched the debate. After Kerry, responding to a question about gay rights, reminded the audience that Vice President Cheney's daughter was a lesbian, Cheney responded with a statement calling himself "a pretty angry father" due to Kerry using Cheney's daughter's sexual orientation for his political purposes. Polls taken by Gallup in found that Kerry pulled ahead in October, but showed a tight race as the election drew to a close.

Osama bin Laden videotape

On October 29, four days before the election, excerpts of a video of Osama bin Laden addressing the American people were broadcast on al Jazeera. In his remarks, bin Laden mentions the September 11 attacks, and taunted Bush over his response to them. In the days following the video's release, Bush's lead over Kerry increased by several points.

Electoral College forecasts

Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts of the composition of the Electoral College. These forecasts use a variety of factors to estimate the likelihood of each candidate winning the Electoral College electors for that state. Most election predictors use the following ratings:

  • "tossup": no advantage

  • "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"

  • "lean" or "leans": slight advantage

  • "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage

  • "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory

Below is a list of states considered by one or more forecasts to be competitive; states that are not deemed to be "safe" or "solid" by at least one of the forecasters The Cook Political Report, The New York Times, and CNN.

State

New York Times

538

CNN

Arkansas

6

| | |

Arizona

10

| | |

Colorado

9

| | |

Delaware

3

| | |

Florida

27

| | |

Iowa

7

| | |

Maryland

10

| | |

Maine

4

| | |

Michigan

17

| | |

Minnesota

10

| | |

New Hampshire

4

| | |

Missouri

11

| | |

Nevada

5

| | |

New Jersey

15

| | |

New Mexico

5

| | |

North Carolina

15

| | |

Ohio

20

| | |

Pennsylvania

21

| | |

Oregon

7

| | |

Tennessee

11

| | |

Wisconsin

10

| | |

West Virginia

5

| | |

Virginia

13

| | |

Timeline

ResultsElection results

Source (Electoral and Popular Vote): Federal Elections Commission Electoral and Popular Vote Summary Voting age population: 215,664,000

Percent of voting age population casting a vote for president: 56.70%

(a) One faithless elector from Minnesota cast an electoral vote for John Edwards (written as John Ewards) for president. (b) In Montana, Karen Sanchirico was listed on the ballot as Nader's running mate, not Camejo. In Alabama, Jan D. Pierce was Nader's running mate. In New York, Nader appeared on two distinct tickets, one with Camejo and one with Pierce. (c) Because Arrin Hawkins, then aged 28, was constitutionally ineligible to serve as vice president, Margaret Trowe replaced her on the ballot in some states. James Harris replaced Calero on certain other states' ballots.

Results by state

Of the 3,154 counties/districts/independent cities making returns, Bush won the popular vote in 2,568 (81.42%) while Kerry carried 586 (18.58%). The following table records the official vote tallies for each state as reported by the official Federal Election Commission report. The column labeled "Margin" shows Bush's margin of victory over Kerry (the margin is negative for states and districts won by Kerry).

States/districts won by Kerry/Edwards

States/districts won by Bush/Cheney

†

At-large results (for states that split electoral votes)

Legend

George W. BushRepublican

John KerryDemocratic

Ralph NaderIndependent / Reform

Michael BadnarikLibertarian

Michael PeroutkaConstitution

David CobbGreen

Others

Margin

MarginSwing

State Total

State

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

%

%

#

Alabama

9

1,176,394

62.46%

9

693,933

36.84%

–

6,701

0.36%

–

3,529

0.19%

–

1,994

0.11%

–

0

0.00%

–

898

0.05%

–

482,461

25.62%

10.70%

1,883,449

AL

Alaska

3

190,889

61.07%

3

111,025

35.52%

–

5,069

1.62%

–

1,675

0.54%

–

2,092

0.67%

–

1,058

0.34%

–

790

0.25%

–

79,864

25.55%

−5.40%

312,598

AK

Arizona

10

1,104,294

54.87%

10

893,524

44.40%

–

2,773

0.14%

–

11,856

0.59%

–

0

0.00%

–

138

0.01%

–

0

0.00%

–

210,770

10.47%

4.18%

2,012,585

AZ

Arkansas

6

572,898

54.31%

6

469,953

44.55%

–

6,171

0.58%

–

2,352

0.22%

–

2,083

0.20%

–

1,488

0.14%

–

0

0.00%

–

102,945

9.76%

4.32%

1,054,945

AR

California

55

5,509,826

44.36%

–

6,745,485

54.30%

55

21,213

0.17%

–

50,165

0.40%

–

26,645

0.21%

–

40,771

0.33%

–

27,747

0.22%

–

−1,235,659

−9.94%

1.85%

12,421,852

CA

Colorado

9

1,101,255

51.69%

9

1,001,732

47.02%

–

12,718

0.60%

–

7,664

0.36%

–

2,562

0.12%

–

1,591

0.07%

–

2,808

0.13%

–

99,523

4.67%

−3.69%

2,130,330

CO

Connecticut

7

693,826

43.95%

–

857,488

54.31%

7

12,969

0.82%

–

3,367

0.21%

–

1,543

0.10%

–

9,564

0.61%

–

12

0.00%

–

−163,662

−10.36%

7.10%

1,578,769

CT

Delaware

3

171,660

45.75%

–

200,152

53.35%

3

2,153

0.57%

–

586

0.16%

–

289

0.08%

–

250

0.07%

–

100

0.03%

–

−28,492

−7.60%

5.47%

375,190

DE

District of Columbia

3

21,256

9.34%

–

202,970

89.18%

3

1,485

0.65%

–

502

0.22%

–

0

0.00%

–

737

0.32%

–

636

0.28%

–

−181,714

−79.84%

−3.64%

227,586

DC

Florida

27

3,964,522

52.10%

27

3,583,544

47.09%

–

32,971

0.43%

–

11,996

0.16%

–

6,626

0.09%

–

3,917

0.05%

–

6,234

0.08%

–

380,978

5.01%

5.00%

7,609,810

FL

Georgia

15

1,914,254

57.97%

15

1,366,149

41.37%

–

2,231

0.07%

–

18,387

0.56%

–

580

0.02%

–

228

0.01%

–

46

0.00%

–

548,105

16.60%

4.91%

3,301,875

GA

Hawaii

4

194,191

45.26%

–

231,708

54.01%

4

0

0.00%

–

1,377

0.32%

–

0

0.00%

–

1,737

0.40%

–

0

0.00%

–

−37,517

−8.75%

9.59%

429,013

HI

Idaho

4

409,235

68.38%

4

181,098

30.26%

–

1,115

0.19%

–

3,844

0.64%

–

3,084

0.52%

–

58

0.01%

–

13

0.00%

–

228,137

38.12%

−1.41%

598,447

ID

Illinois

21

2,345,946

44.48%

–

2,891,550

54.82%

21

3,571

0.07%

–

32,442

0.62%

–

440

0.01%

–

241

0.00%

–

132

0.00%

–

−545,604

−10.34%

1.67%

5,274,322

IL

Indiana

11

1,479,438

59.94%

11

969,011

39.26%

–

1,328

0.05%

–

18,058

0.73%

–

0

0.00%

–

102

0.00%

–

65

0.00%

–

510,427

20.68%

5.05%

2,468,002

IN

Iowa

7

751,957

49.90%

7

741,898

49.23%

–

5,973

0.40%

–

2,992

0.20%

–

1,304

0.09%

–

1,141

0.08%

–

1,643

0.11%

–

10,059

0.67%

0.98%

1,506,908

IA

Kansas

6

736,456

62.00%

6

434,993

36.62%

–

9,348

0.79%

–

4,013

0.34%

–

2,899

0.24%

–

33

0.00%

–

14

0.00%

–

301,463

25.38%

4.58%

1,187,756

KS

Kentucky

8

1,069,439

59.55%

8

712,733

39.69%

–

8,856

0.49%

–

2,619

0.15%

–

2,213

0.12%

–

0

0.00%

–

22

0.00%

–

356,706

19.86%

4.73%

1,795,882

KY

Louisiana

9

1,102,169

56.72%

9

820,299

42.22%

–

7,032

0.36%

–

2,781

0.14%

–

5,203

0.27%

–

1,276

0.07%

–

4,346

0.22%

–

281,870

14.50%

6.83%

1,943,106

LA

Maine†

2

330,201

44.58%

–

396,842

53.57%

2

8,069

1.09%

–

1,965

0.27%

–

735

0.10%

–

2,936

0.40%

–

4

0.00%

–

−66,641

−8.99%

−3.89%

740,752

ME

Maine-1

1

165,824

43.14%

–

211,703

55.07%

1

4,004

1.04%

–

1,047

0.27%

–

346

0.09%

–

1,468

0.38%

–

–

–

–

−45,879

−11.93%

−4.01%

384,392

ME1

Maine-2

1

164,377

46.13%

–

185,139

51.95%

1

4,065

1.14%

–

918

0.26%

–

389

0.11%

–

1,468

0.41%

–

–

–

–

−20,762

−5.83%

−3.96%

356,356

ME2

Maryland

10

1,024,703

42.93%

–

1,334,493

55.91%

10

11,854

0.50%

–

6,094

0.26%

–

3,421

0.14%

–

3,632

0.15%

–

2,481

0.10%

–

−309,790

−12.98%

3.41%

2,386,678

MD

Massachusetts

12

1,071,109

36.78%

–

1,803,800

61.94%

12

4,806

0.17%

–

15,022

0.52%

–

0

0.00%

–

10,623

0.36%

–

7,028

0.24%

–

−732,691

−25.16%

2.14%

2,912,388

MA

Michigan

17

2,313,746

47.81%

–

2,479,183

51.23%

17

24,035

0.50%

–

10,552

0.22%

–

4,980

0.10%

–

5,325

0.11%

–

1,431

0.03%

–

−165,437

−3.42%

1.71%

4,839,252

MI

Minnesota

10

1,346,695

47.61%

–

1,445,014

51.09%

9

18,683

0.66%

–

4,639

0.16%

–

3,074

0.11%

–

4,408

0.16%

–

5,874

0.21%

–

−98,319

−3.48%

−1.08%

2,828,387

MN

Mississippi

6

684,981

59.45%

6

458,094

39.76%

–

3,177

0.28%

–

1,793

0.16%

–

1,759

0.15%

–

1,073

0.09%

–

1,268

0.11%

–

226,887

19.69%

2.77%

1,152,145

MS

Missouri

11

1,455,713

53.30%

11

1,259,171

46.10%

–

1,294

0.05%

–

9,831

0.36%

–

5,355

0.20%

–

0

0.00%

–

0

0.00%

–

196,542

7.20%

3.86%

2,731,364

MO

Montana

3

266,063

59.07%

3

173,710

38.56%

–

6,168

1.37%

–

1,733

0.38%

–

1,764

0.39%

–

996

0.22%

–

11

0.00%

–

92,353

20.51%

−4.57%

450,445

MT

Nebraska†

2

512,814

65.90%

2

254,328

32.68%

–

5,698

0.73%

–

2,041

0.26%

–

1,314

0.17%

–

978

0.13%

–

1,013

0.13%

–

258,486

33.22%

4.23%

778,186

NE

Nebraska-1

1

169,888

62.97%

1

96,314

35.70%

–

2,025

0.75%

–

656

0.24%

–

405

0.15%

–

453

0.17%

–

30

0.01%

–

73,574

27.27%

4.29%

269,771

NE1

Nebraska-2

1

153,041

60.24%

1

97,858

38.52%

–

1,731

0.68%

–

813

0.32%

–

305

0.12%

–

261

0.10%

–

23

0.01%

–

55,183

21.72%

3.32%

254,032

NE2

Nebraska-3

1

189,885

74.92%

1

60,156

23.73%

–

1,942

0.77%

–

572

0.23%

–

604

0.24%

–

264

0.10%

–

29

0.01%

–

129,729

51.19%

4.77%

253,452

NE3

Nevada

5

418,690

50.47%

5

397,190

47.88%

–

4,838

0.58%

–

3,176

0.38%

–

1,152

0.14%

–

853

0.10%

–

3,688

0.44%

–

21,500

2.59%

−0.96%

829,587

NV

New Hampshire

4

331,237

48.87%

–

340,511

50.24%

4

4,479

0.66%

–

372

0.05%

–

161

0.02%

–

0

0.00%

–

978

0.14%

–

−9,274

−1.37%

−2.64%

677,738

NH

New Jersey

15

1,670,003

46.24%

–

1,911,430

52.92%

15

19,418

0.54%

–

4,514

0.12%

–

2,750

0.08%

–

1,807

0.05%

–

1,769

0.05%

–

−241,427

−6.68%

9.15%

3,611,691

NJ

New Mexico

5

376,930

49.84%

5

370,942

49.05%

–

4,053

0.54%

–

2,382

0.31%

–

771

0.10%

–

1,226

0.16%

–

0

0.00%

–

5,988

0.79%

0.85%

756,304

NM

New York

31

2,962,567

40.08%

–

4,314,280

58.37%

31

99,873

1.35%

–

11,607

0.16%

–

207

0.00%

–

87

0.00%

–

2,415

0.03%

–

−1,351,713

−18.29%

6.69%

7,391,036

NY

North Carolina

15

1,961,166

56.02%

15

1,525,849

43.58%

–

1,805

0.05%

–

11,731

0.34%

–

0

0.00%

–

108

0.00%

–

348

0.01%

–

435,317

12.44%

−0.40%

3,501,007

NC

North Dakota

3

196,651

62.86%

3

111,052

35.50%

–

3,756

1.20%

–

851

0.27%

–

514

0.16%

–

0

0.00%

–

9

0.00%

–

85,599

27.36%

−0.24%

312,833

ND

Ohio

20

2,859,768

50.81%

20

2,741,167

48.71%

–

0

0.00%

–

14,676

0.26%

–

11,939

0.21%

–

192

0.00%

–

166

0.00%

–

118,601

2.10%

−1.40%

5,627,908

OH

Oklahoma

7

959,792

65.57%

7

503,966

34.43%

–

0

0.00%

–

0

0.00%

–

0

0.00%

–

0

0.00%

–

0

0.00%

–

455,826

31.14%

9.26%

1,463,758

OK

Oregon

7

866,831

47.19%

–

943,163

51.35%

7

0

0.00%

–

7,260

0.40%

–

5,257

0.29%

–

5,315

0.29%

–

8,956

0.49%

–

−76,332

−4.16%

−3.72%

1,836,782

OR

Pennsylvania

21

2,793,847

48.42%

–

2,938,095

50.92%

21

2,656

0.05%

–

21,185

0.37%

–

6,318

0.11%

–

6,319

0.11%

–

1,170

0.02%

–

−144,248

−2.50%

1.67%

5,769,590

PA

Rhode Island

4

169,046

38.67%

–

259,765

59.42%

4

4,651

1.06%

–

907

0.21%

–

339

0.08%

–

1,333

0.30%

–

1,093

0.25%

–

−90,719

−20.75%

8.33%

437,134

RI

South Carolina

8

937,974

57.98%

8

661,699

40.90%

–

5,520

0.34%

–

3,608

0.22%

–

5,317

0.33%

–

1,488

0.09%

–

2,124

0.13%

–

276,275

17.08%

1.14%

1,617,730

SC

South Dakota

3

232,584

59.91%

3

149,244

38.44%

–

4,320

1.11%

–

964

0.25%

–

1,103

0.28%

–

0

0.00%

–

0

0.00%

–

83,340

21.47%

−1.26%

388,215

SD

Tennessee

11

1,384,375

56.80%

11

1,036,477

42.53%

–

8,992

0.37%

–

4,866

0.20%

–

2,570

0.11%

–

33

0.00%

–

6

0.00%

–

347,898

14.27%

10.41%

2,437,319

TN

Texas

34

4,526,917

61.09%

34

2,832,704

38.22%

–

9,159

0.12%

–

38,787

0.52%

–

1,636

0.02%

–

1,014

0.01%

–

548

0.01%

–

1,694,213

22.87%

1.54%

7,410,765

TX

Utah

5

663,742

71.54%

5

241,199

26.00%

–

11,305

1.22%

–

3,375

0.36%

–

6,841

0.74%

–

39

0.00%

–

1,343

0.14%

–

422,543

45.54%

5.05%

927,844

UT

Vermont

3

121,180

38.80%

–

184,067

58.94%

3

4,494

1.44%

–

1,102

0.35%

–

0

0.00%

–

0

0.00%

–

1,466

0.47%

–

−62,887

−20.14%

−10.20%

312,309

VT

Virginia

13

1,716,959

53.68%

13

1,454,742

45.48%

–

2,393

0.07%

–

11,032

0.34%

–

10,161

0.32%

–

104

0.00%

–

2,976

0.09%

–

262,217

8.20%

0.16%

3,198,367

VA

Washington

11

1,304,894

45.64%

–

1,510,201

52.82%

11

23,283

0.81%

–

11,955

0.42%

–

3,922

0.14%

–

2,974

0.10%

–

1,855

0.06%

–

−205,307

−7.18%

−1.60%

2,859,084

WA

West Virginia

5

423,778

56.06%

5

326,541

43.20%

–

4,063

0.54%

–

1,405

0.19%

–

82

0.01%

–

5

0.00%

–

13

0.00%

–

97,237

12.86%

6.54%

755,887

WV

Wisconsin

10

1,478,120

49.32%

–

1,489,504

49.70%

10

16,390

0.55%

–

6,464

0.22%

–

0

0.00%

–

2,661

0.09%

–

3,868

0.13%

–

−11,384

−0.38%

−0.16%

2,997,007

WI

Wyoming

3

167,629

68.86%

3

70,776

29.07%

–

2,741

1.13%

–

1,171

0.48%

–

631

0.26%

–

0

0.00%

–

480

0.20%

–

96,853

39.79%

−0.27%

243,428

WY

U.S Total

538

62,040,610

50.73%

286

59,028,444

48.27%

251

465,151

0.38%

–

397,265

0.32%

–

143,630

0.12%

–

119,859

0.10%

–

99,887

0.08%

–

3,012,166

2.46%

2.98%

122,290,630

US

Although Guam has no votes in the Electoral College, it has held a straw poll for its presidential preference since 1980. In 2004, the results were Bush 21,490 (64.1%), Kerry 11,781 (35.1%), Nader 196 (0.58%) and Badnarik 67 (0.2%). Maine and Nebraska each allowed for their electoral votes to be split between candidates. In both states, two electoral votes were awarded to the winner of the statewide race and one electoral vote was awarded to the winner of each congressional district.

States that flipped Democratic to Republican

States that flipped Republican to Democratic

Close states

Red font color denotes those won by Republican President George W. Bush; blue denotes states won by Democrat John Kerry.

States where margin of victory was under 1% (22 electoral votes):

  1. Wisconsin 0.38% (11,384 votes)

  2. Iowa 0.67% (10,059 votes)

  3. New Mexico 0.79% (5,988 votes)

States where margin of victory was more than 1% but less than 5% (93 electoral votes):

  1. New Hampshire 1.37% (9,274 votes)

  2. Ohio 2.10% (118,601 votes) (tipping point state)

  3. Pennsylvania 2.50% (144,248 votes)

  4. Nevada 2.59% (21,500 votes)

  5. Michigan 3.42% (165,437 votes)

  6. Minnesota 3.48% (98,319 votes)

  7. Oregon 4.16% (76,332 votes)

  8. Colorado 4.67% (99,523 votes)

States where margin of victory was more than 5% but less than 10% (149 electoral votes):

  1. Florida 5.01% (380,978 votes)

  2. Maine's 2nd congressional district 5.83% (20,762 votes)

  3. New Jersey 6.68% (241,427 votes)

  4. Washington 7.18% (205,307 votes)

  5. Missouri 7.20% (196,542 votes)

  6. Delaware 7.60% (28,492 votes)

  7. Virginia 8.20% (262,217 votes)

  8. Hawaii 8.75% (37,517 votes)

  9. Maine 8.99% (66,641 votes)

  10. Arkansas 9.76% (102,945 votes)

  11. California 9.94% (1,235,659 votes)

Statistics

Counties with highest percent of vote (Republican)

  1. Ochiltree County, Texas 91.97%

  2. Madison County, Idaho 91.89%

  3. Glasscock County, Texas 91.56%

  4. Roberts County, Texas 90.93%

  5. Arthur County, Nebraska 90.23%

Counties with highest percent of vote (Democratic)

  1. Shannon County, South Dakota 84.62%

  2. City and County of San Francisco, California 83.02%

  3. Macon County, Alabama 82.92%

  4. Bronx County, New York 82.80%

Finance

Money spent

Source: FEC

Ballot access

Presidential ticket

Party

Ballot access

Bush / Cheney

Republican

50+DC

Kerry / Edwards

Democratic

50+DC

Badnarik / Campagna

Libertarian

48+DC

Peroutka / Baldwin

Constitution

36

Nader / Camejo

Independent, Reform

34+DC

Cobb / LaMarche

Green

27+DC

2004 United States Electoral College

One elector in Minnesota cast a ballot for president with the name of "John Ewards" written on it. The Electoral College officials certified this ballot as a vote for Edwards for president. The remaining nine electors cast ballots for Kerry. All ten electors in the state cast ballots for Edwards for vice president (Edwards's name was spelled correctly on all ballots for vice president). This was the first time in U.S. history that an elector had cast a vote for the same person to be both president and vice president. Electoral balloting in Minnesota was performed by secret ballot, and none of the electors admitted to casting the Edwards vote for president, so it may never be known who the faithless elector was. It is not even known whether the vote for Edwards was deliberate or unintentional; the Republican Secretary of State and several of the Democratic electors have expressed the opinion that this was an accident.

Statistical analysis

During the campaign and as the results came in on the night of the election, there was much focus on Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. These three swing states were seen as evenly divided, and with each casting 20 electoral votes or more, they had the power to decide the election. As the final results came in, Kerry took Pennsylvania and then Bush took Florida, focusing all attention on Ohio.

The morning after the election, the winner was still undetermined. The result in Ohio would decide the winner, although the results in New Mexico and Iowa were also undetermined. Bush led in Ohio, but the state was still counting provisional ballots. In the afternoon of the day after the election, Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell announced that there were roughly 135,000 provisional ballots remaining. Kerry's campaign believed that it was statistically impossible to erase Bush's lead. Faced with this announcement, Kerry conceded defeat.

Bush became the first Republican to ever win without carrying New Hampshire, and the first to win the popular vote without Vermont and Illinois. This was the last time a president was re-elected to a consecutive term with a higher share of the electoral or popular vote. Bush carried Colorado despite the state being Kerry's birth state. Bush simultaneously lost his own birth state of Connecticut, making this the only election since 1864 where neither candidate carried their birth state. This election was the first time since 1976 that New Jersey, Connecticut, Vermont, Maine, Illinois, Michigan, and California voted for the losing candidate in the popular vote, the first time since 1980 that Maryland did so, and the first time since 1948 that Delaware did so. Bush's 2.4% popular vote margin is the smallest ever for a re-elected incumbent president, surpassing the 1812 election.

Bush won three states that have not voted Republican since: Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico. Virginia had voted Republican in every election from 1968 to 2004. Since 2008, Virginia has always voted Democratic and West Virginia has always voted Republican, regardless of the national outcome.

This is the last election in which the losing candidate won any of the following states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This is also the last time a Republican was elected without carrying Maine's 2nd congressional district. This election is the only time in history that every Northeastern state voted Democratic and every former Confederate state voted Republican in the same election. Thus, Bush is the only candidate to win without carrying any Northeastern electoral votes. Furthermore, this was the last election where both major party tickets consisted entirely of white men. This is also the most recent election that the incumbent party would flip any states, with Bush becoming the first Republican since 1984 to win the state of Iowa, and since 1988 to win the state of New Mexico, both states he did not win in 2000. This was the last election where Nevada voted Republican until 2024; and Florida, Iowa, and Ohio until 2016.

This is the only presidential election since 1988 in which a Republican nominee won the national popular vote with a majority, and it remains the only presidential election since 1984 in which an incumbent Republican president won a second consecutive term. Bush became the only incumbent president to win consecutive re-election after previously losing the popular vote. Bush was also the first of only two presidents to win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote in a previous election but later winning both the Electoral College and the popular vote in a subsequent election. Bush is the seventh Republican to have won re-election to a consecutive term, along with Abraham Lincoln, Ulysses S. Grant, William McKinley, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, and Ronald Reagan. Bush was also the last Republican to win a second term in the White House until Donald Trump in 2024. The 2004 election had the highest turnout rate among eligible voters since 1968. This election was one of only four U.S. presidential elections held since the Democrats and Republicans became the two major parties in which the winner did not carry any of the three Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; the others were 1884, 1916, and 2000, when Bush was first elected.

This was the first presidential election since 1988 where a candidate won a majority of the popular vote. This was the last time a Republican nominee won the national popular vote until Donald Trump in 2024. This remains the most recent presidential election in which both major party candidates flipped at least one state. In addition, this was one of only two elections in the 21st century in which a candidate from either party won fewer than 20 states, with the other being 2024, when Kamala Harris won 19 states, the same as John Kerry. This is the most recent instance in which both major party tickets did not include a woman or a person of color. This, along with the previous election would be the only ones between 1980 and 2024 where the winner won fewer than 300 electoral votes (or below 55% of the electoral college vote). This is also the last winning ticket that did not have Joe Biden or Donald Trump on it.

Maps

Voter demographics

In 2004, voters with and without college degrees were roughly evenly split along partisan lines. By 2024, voters with college degrees were Democratic-leaning, while voters without college degrees were Republican-leaning.

2004 presidential vote by demographic subgroup

Demographic subgroup

Kerry

Bush

Other

% oftotal vote

Total vote

48

51

1

100

Ideology

Liberals

86

13

1

21

Moderates

54

45

1

45

Conservatives

15

84

1

34

Party

Democrats

89

11

0

37

Republicans

6

93

1

37

Independents

49

48

3

26

Gender

Men

44

55

1

46

Women

51

48

1

54

Marital status

Married

42

57

1

63

Non-married

58

40

2

37

Race

White

41

58

1

77

Black

88

11

1

11

Asian

56

43

1

2

Other

56

40

4

2

Hispanic

54

44

2

8

Religion

Protestant

40

59

1

54

Catholic

47

52

1

27

Jewish

74

25

1

3

Muslim

93

<1

>6

1

Other

74

23

3

7

None

67

31

2

10

Religious service attendance

More than weekly

35

64

1

16

Weekly

41

58

1

26

Monthly

49

50

1

14

A few times a year

54

45

1

28

Never

62

36

2

15

White evangelical or born-again Christian?

White evangelical or born-again Christian

21

78

1

23

Everyone else

56

43

1

77

Age

18–29 years old

54

45

1

17

30–44 years old

46

53

1

29

45–59 years old

48

51

1

30

60 and older

46

54

0

24

First time voter?

First time voter

53

46

1

11

Everyone else

48

51

1

89

Sexual orientation

Gay, lesbian, or bisexual

77

22

1

4

Heterosexual

46

53

1

96

Education

Not a high school graduate

50

49

1

4

High school graduate

47

52

1

22

Some college education

46

54

0

32

College graduate

46

52

2

26

Postgraduate education

55

44

1

16

Family income

Under $15,000

63

36

1

8

$15,000–30,000

57

42

1

15

$30,000–50,000

50

49

1

22

$50,000–75,000

43

56

1

23

$75,000–100,000

45

55

0

14

$100,000–150,000

42

57

1

11

$150,000–200,000

42

58

0

4

Over $200,000

35

63

2

3

Union households

Union

59

40

1

24

Non-union

44

55

1

76

Military service

Veterans

41

57

2

18

Non-veterans

50

49

1

82

Issue regarded as most important

Moral values

18

80

2

22

Economy

80

18

2

20

Terrorism

14

86

0

19

Iraq

73

26

1

15

Health care

77

23

0

8

Taxes

43

57

0

5

Education

73

26

1

4

Region

Northeast

56

43

1

22

Midwest

48

51

1

26

South

42

58

0

32

West

50

49

1

20

Community size

Urban

54

45

1

30

Suburban

47

52

1

46

Rural

42

57

1

25

Source: CNN exit poll (13,660 surveyed)

Aftermath

Voting problems in Ohio

After the election, activists and election scholars criticized various issues with the election in Ohio. Long lines at polling places over seven hours were reported. An electronic voting machine erroneously gave thousands of extra votes to Bush. Professor Edward B. Foley stated that he believed that Ohio's voting problems did not affect the outcome.

Objections and conspiracy theories

After the election, many blogs published false rumors claiming to show evidence that voter fraud had prevented Kerry from winning. Although the overall result of the election was not challenged by the Kerry campaign, Green Party presidential candidate David Cobb and Libertarian Party presidential candidate Michael Badnarik obtained a recount in Ohio. This recount was completed December 28, 2004, although on January 24, 2007, a jury convicted two Ohio elections officials of selecting precincts to recount where they already knew the hand total would match the machine total, thereby avoiding having to perform a full recount. Independent candidate Ralph Nader obtained a recount in 11 New Hampshire precincts that used Accuvote voting machines.

At the official counting of the electoral votes on January 6, an objection was made under the Electoral Count Act (now ) to Ohio's electoral votes. Because the motion was supported by at least one member of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, the law required that the two houses separate to debate and vote on the objection. In the House of Representatives, the objection was supported by 31 Democrats. It was opposed by 178 Republicans, 88 Democrats and one independent. Not voting were 52 Republicans and 80 Democrats. Four people elected to the House had not yet taken office, and one seat was vacant. In the Senate, it was supported only by its maker, Barbara Boxer, with 74 senators opposed and 25 not voting. During the debate, no Senator argued that the outcome of the election should be changed by either court challenge or revote. Boxer claimed that she had made the motion not to challenge the outcome but "to cast the light of truth on a flawed system which must be fixed now".

Kerry would later state that "the widespread irregularities make it impossible to know for certain that the [Ohio] outcome reflected the will of the voters". In the same article, Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean said: "I'm not confident that the election in Ohio was fairly decided... We know that there was substantial voter suppression, and the machines were not reliable. It should not be a surprise that the Republicans are willing to do things that are unethical to manipulate elections. That's what we suspect has happened."

See also

Other elections

Notes

References

Sources

Books

  • Ceaser, James W. and Andrew E. Busch. Red Over Blue: The 2004 Elections and American Politics (2005), narrative history.

  • Freeman, Steven F. and Joel Bleifuss, Foreword by U.S. Representative John Conyers, Jr. Was the 2004 Presidential Election Stolen? Exit Polls, Election Fraud, and the Official Count (Seven Stories Press, 2006)

  • Green, John C. and Mark J. Rozell, eds. The Values Campaign?: The Christian Right and the 2004 Elections (2006)

  • Miller, Mark Crispin. Fooled Again: How the Right Stole the 2004 Election (2005) –

  • Sabato, Larry J. Divided States of America: The Slash And Burn Politics of the 2004 Presidential Election (2005)

  • Stempel III, Guido H. and Thomas K. Hargrove, eds. The 21st-Century Voter: Who Votes, How They Vote, and Why They Vote (2 vol. 2015)

Further reading

Official candidate websites

Election maps and analysis

State-by-state forecasts of electoral vote outcome

Controversies

Election campaign funding

Campaign ads